Key facts
- Equal favourites: Point Of Law and Trustyourinstinct at $7 (Ladbrokes, 6:24am AEDT, 30 October).
- Biggest firmer since early October: Point Of Law, from $18 before the Geelong Cup.
- Biggest drifter among the top names: Wine Dark Sea, from $15 to $34.
- Odds move most after the barrier draw (Saturday night) and the track rating (Tuesday morning).
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What are the latest Melbourne Cup odds?
The latest Melbourne Cup odds have Point Of Law and Trustyourinstinct as equal $7 favourites, with Hopewell Rock next at $10. The table shows Ladbrokes fixed win odds for every horse in the projected field at 6:24am AEDT on Friday 30 October 2026. Odds change constantly, so always check the current price with your bookmaker before you bet. If you are new to betting, our Melbourne Cup betting guide explains how odds and bet types work.
| Horse | Win odds | Trainer | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Of Law | $7 | Ciaron Maher | 53kg |
| Trustyourinstinct | $7 | Joseph O'Brien (Ireland) | 57kg |
| Hopewell Rock | $10 | George Boughey (Newmarket, UK) | 54.5kg |
| Defiantly | $11 | Joseph O'Brien (Ireland) | 56.5kg |
| Shockletz | $11 | Ciaron Maher | 51kg |
| James J Braddock | $13 | Joseph O'Brien (Ireland) | 53.5kg |
| Juja Kibo | $15 | Ciaron Maher | 55kg |
| Middle Earth | $17 | Ciaron Maher | 56.5kg |
| Enfjaar | $19 | Roger Varian (Newmarket, UK) | 56kg |
| So You Are | $21 | Bjorn Baker | 54kg |
| Sons And Lovers | $21 | Joseph O'Brien (Ireland) | 57.5kg |
| Goodie Two Shoes | $26 | Joseph O'Brien (Ireland) | 55kg |
| Mr Monaco | $26 | Ciaron Maher | 52.5kg |
| Stinger Glass | $26 | Yasuo Tomomichi (Japan) | 57kg |
| Zahrann | $26 | Ciaron Maher | 54.5kg |
| Wine Dark Sea | $34 | Harry Charlton (UK) | 56kg |
| Zakouma | $34 | Grahame Begg | 52kg |
| Knight's Choice | $51 | John Symons & Sheila Laxon | 56.5kg |
| Royal Supremacy | $51 | Ciaron Maher | 56kg |
| Soul Of Spain | $51 | Chris Waller | 54.5kg |
| Vauban | $51 | Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | 56.5kg |
| Asterix | $101 | Chris Waller | 55kg |
| Onesmoothoperator | $101 | Tim Fitzsimmons | 54.5kg |
| Strictly Business | $101 | Thomas Carberry | 53kg |
How have the Melbourne Cup odds moved?
The Melbourne Cup odds have moved more in the past fortnight than at any time since betting opened. When the TAB opened its all-in market on 5 October, Defiantly was favourite at $8, ahead of Aeliana at $9, James J Braddock at $11, and Trustyourinstinct and Zakouma at $13. Since then:
- Point Of Law firmed from $18 to favourite after winning the Geelong Cup on 21 October.
- Hopewell Rock firmed into $10 after strong trackwork at Flemington this week.
- Juja Kibo came in from $26 to $13 after the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, then eased to $15.
- So You Are shortened to $21 after the Bendigo Cup win that got him into the field.
- Defiantly drifted from $8 to $11, and Wine Dark Sea from $15 to $34 after an unplaced Caulfield Cup.
- Stinger Glass has drifted to $26 on speculation about his fitness ahead of his first vet examination.
What do the odds say about each horse's chances?
Decimal odds convert to an implied chance: divide 100 by the odds. The figures below show the bookmaker's view, not a prediction, and they add up to more than 100 per cent because every price includes the bookmaker's margin.
| Odds | Implied chance | Horses at that price (30 Oct) |
|---|---|---|
| $7 | 14% | Point Of Law, Trustyourinstinct |
| $10 | 10% | Hopewell Rock |
| $11 | 9% | Defiantly, Shockletz |
| $13 | 8% | James J Braddock |
| $21 | 5% | So You Are, Sons And Lovers |
| $51 | 2% | Knight's Choice, Royal Supremacy, Soul Of Spain, Vauban |
| $101 | 1% | Asterix, Onesmoothoperator, Strictly Business |
The market is unusually open. With two equal favourites at $7 and five horses at $11 or shorter, no horse is rated better than a one-in-seven chance.
Why do Melbourne Cup odds keep changing?
Melbourne Cup odds keep changing because the information keeps changing. These are the events that move the market most in Cup week:
- Vet inspections. Five horses still need clearance. A failed inspection removes a horse and pushes the others in.
- The barrier draw on Saturday evening. Very wide or very inside draws can move a price several points.
- Jockey bookings. Riders must be declared by 4:30pm on Saturday.
- The track rating. Rain on Monday or Tuesday helps wet-trackers such as Mr Monaco and hurts firm-ground horses such as Goodie Two Shoes.
- Weight of money. Big bets on Cup Day shorten a horse even when nothing else has changed.
Do favourites win the Melbourne Cup?
Favourites have a poor record in the Melbourne Cup. Published trend analyses agree that no favourite has won since Fiorente in 2013. The race is a 3200m handicap with 24 runners, so luck in running and the weight each horse carries matter as much as raw ability. That does not mean the favourite will lose; it means the price on the favourite is rarely generous. Our Melbourne Cup favourites page looks at this year's leading fancies in detail.
Fixed odds or tote: which is better for the Melbourne Cup?
Fixed odds lock in the price you take, while tote odds are only settled when betting closes. On Melbourne Cup Day the tote pools are huge, so tote prices can be competitive, but you will not know your exact return until the race starts.
| Fixed odds | Tote | |
|---|---|---|
| Price known when you bet | Yes | No, only when betting closes |
| Who sets the price | The bookmaker | The pool of all bets |
| Changes after you bet | No | Yes, until the race starts |
| Best for | Locking in a price you like | Large pools on big race days |
When is the best time to take Melbourne Cup odds?
There is no single best time. Taking a price early locks it in, but you carry the risk that your horse is scratched or draws badly. In an all-in market, a bet on a horse that does not start is usually lost rather than refunded, so read the bookmaker's rules first. Waiting until after the barrier draw on Saturday night removes much of that risk, at the cost of a possibly shorter price.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite for the Melbourne Cup 2026?
Point Of Law and Trustyourinstinct were equal favourites at $7 with Ladbrokes at 6:24am AEDT on Friday 30 October 2026.
What do Melbourne Cup odds of $7 mean?
Odds of $7 are decimal odds: a $10 win bet returns $70 if the horse wins, which is your $10 stake plus $60 profit. The bookmaker's price implies a chance of about 14 per cent.
When do Melbourne Cup odds change the most?
Melbourne Cup odds move most after lead-up races, after the barrier draw on the Saturday before the Cup, after scratchings and when the track rating is announced on race morning.
Do favourites win the Melbourne Cup?
Rarely. No favourite has won the Melbourne Cup since Fiorente in 2013, according to published trend analyses of the race.
What are the longest odds a Melbourne Cup winner has paid?
Three winners have paid 100 to 1: The Pearl, Wotan and Old Rowley. The shortest-priced winner was Phar Lap at 8 to 11 in 1930.
Are Melbourne Cup odds the same at every bookmaker?
No. Each bookmaker sets its own fixed odds, so the same horse can be a different price at different bookmakers. Tote odds are different again and are only final when the race starts.
What is the difference between fixed odds and tote odds?
Fixed odds lock in your price when you place the bet. Tote odds depend on how much money is bet on each horse in the pool and are only known when betting closes.
Bet responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set a deposit limit with your bookmaker and take breaks. Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential support 24/7 on 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling guide.
Sources
Who wrote and checked this page
Alexander Korsager
Alexander Korsager is our editor-in-chief. He has spent more than ten years in online gambling and iGaming, including senior leadership roles. He writes every Melbourne Cup guide on this site from official VRC and Racing Victoria sources.
Dr. Divesh Garg
Dr. Divesh Garg is a game mathematician with a PhD in mathematics and years of research in probability and statistics. He checks the numbers on our odds and betting pages: implied chances, bet costs, exotic combinations and payouts.