Key facts
- Top pick: Trustyourinstinct, on the same Curragh Cup path as Joseph O'Brien's two Cup winners.
- Next best: Middle Earth, third last year and trained to peak again.
- Each-way value: Goodie Two Shoes, second last year and placed in all three starts at 3200m.
- Roughie: Zakouma, a dual Flemington winner on 52kg.
- Favourite Point Of Law is respected but short for a horse having his sixth start.
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What are our Melbourne Cup tips for 2026?
Our Melbourne Cup tips for 2026 are Trustyourinstinct to win, with Middle Earth, Goodie Two Shoes and Point Of Law as the main dangers and Zakouma as the roughie. These are preliminary: barriers are drawn on Saturday night and the track rating is set on Tuesday morning, and either can change the picture. Prices are Ladbrokes fixed odds from 6:24am AEDT on Friday 30 October, and the full market is on our Melbourne Cup odds page.
| Pick | Horse | Odds (30 Oct) | Weight | Main reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trustyourinstinct | $7 | 57kg | Curragh Cup winner, proven at 3200m, James McDonald rides |
| 2 | Middle Earth | $17 | 56.5kg | Third last year, strong closing sectionals this spring |
| 3 | Goodie Two Shoes | $26 | 55kg | Second last year, placed in all three starts at 3200m |
| 4 | Point Of Law | $7 | 53kg | Unbeaten in Australia on a light weight |
| Roughie | Zakouma | $34 | 52kg | Two wins from four starts at Flemington, back to his best trip |
Why is Trustyourinstinct our top pick?
Trustyourinstinct is our top pick because he has the profile of Joseph O'Brien's past Melbourne Cup winners and the proven stamina the race demands. Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020) both won the Curragh Cup before winning at Flemington, and Trustyourinstinct won this year's Curragh Cup by sprinting home from last. He has won one of his two starts at 3200m, he ran a sound fourth in the Irish St Leger and he has James McDonald, who won the 2021 Cup on Verry Elleegant.
The concerns are real: 57kg is a big weight, and he is a backmarker who needs luck from a wide barrier in a 24-horse field. A good draw on Saturday would firm our view.
Why do we rate Middle Earth?
Middle Earth is the most reliable Cup performer in the field after finishing third last year, and Ciaron Maher has trained him for the same target again. His lead-up runs looked like preparation, not form: he ran the third-fastest last 200m of the Caulfield Cup, then settled last in the Cox Plate and finished solidly. Mark Zahra, who won two of the last four Cups, keeps the ride. He carries 2kg more than last year, which is the main knock.
Which horses are each-way value?
Each-way value comes from proven stayers whose prices allow for the risks. Two stand out:
- Goodie Two Shoes ($26) was second last year and has placed in all three of her starts at 3200m. She has 3.5kg more this year, but her trainer says she is in career-best form after winning the Lillie Langtry Stakes. She wants a dry track.
- Zakouma ($34) is our roughie. He has won twice from four starts at Flemington, won his golden ticket over 2800m and carries 52kg. His spring runs over 1600m to 2400m were short of his best trip.
What about favourite Point Of Law?
Point Of Law is a genuine chance and could easily prove us wrong. He is a Frankel gelding, unbeaten in Australia, and his Geelong Cup win was strong. He also carries just 53kg after his penalty. Our hesitation is the price: at $7 he is equal favourite at only his sixth career start, with no form at 3200m or at Flemington, in a race where favourites have a poor record. Our Melbourne Cup favourites page weighs up both sides.
Which Melbourne Cup trends shaped our tips?
Long-run Melbourne Cup trends shaped how we ranked the field, but none of them is a rule:
- Favourites struggle. No favourite has won since Fiorente in 2013.
- Weight matters. About 60 per cent of modern winners carried 54.5kg or less.
- Age. Four, five and six-year-olds account for about 83 per cent of modern winners.
- Run style. About two-thirds of winners settled ninth or worse before making their run.
- Lead-up form. A strong run in the Caulfield Cup or an overseas staying race is the most common pathway.
Which popular horses would we avoid?
We would rather not back these horses at their current prices:
- Defiantly ($11) has to pass a vet re-examination on Saturday after a change in gait, and he has drifted since opening favourite.
- Stinger Glass ($26) has not yet had his first vet examination and carries 57kg.
- Hopewell Rock ($10) has strong Ebor form, but the price has shortened a long way for a horse with no Australian form and no starts at 3200m.
How will these tips change before the race?
These tips will change in three stages. On Saturday night we update them for the barrier draw and any vet failures. On Monday we publish final tips with the latest track and weather forecast. On Tuesday morning we check for race-day scratchings before 7:30am AEDT. If the track is rated soft or heavy, horses like Mr Monaco, who has won on rain-affected ground, move up our list.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Melbourne Cup 2026?
Nobody can know for sure. Our top pick is Trustyourinstinct, followed by Middle Earth, Goodie Two Shoes and Point Of Law. We will update the tips after the barrier draw on Saturday night.
What is the best roughie for the Melbourne Cup 2026?
Our roughie is Zakouma at $34. He has won twice from four starts at Flemington, carries just 52kg and his spring runs have been well short of his best distance.
Should I back the Melbourne Cup favourite?
Point Of Law is a genuine chance, but no favourite has won the Melbourne Cup since Fiorente in 2013. At $7 for a horse having only his sixth start, we think the price is short.
What trends matter most for Melbourne Cup tips?
The most useful trends are age (four to six-year-olds win most Cups), weight (most winners carry 54.5kg or less), proven staying form and a strong lead-up run, often in the Caulfield Cup.
When are the final Melbourne Cup tips released?
Our final tips go up on Monday 2 November, after the barrier draw on Saturday evening and the latest track and weather forecast. We update them again on race morning if there are scratchings.
What is a good trifecta for the Melbourne Cup 2026?
Our preliminary trifecta box is Trustyourinstinct, Middle Earth, Goodie Two Shoes and Point Of Law. Boxing four horses covers 24 combinations, which costs $12 at a 50 per cent flexi.
Are Melbourne Cup tips worth following?
Tips are opinions based on form and trends, and the Melbourne Cup is one of the hardest races in the world to pick. Use them as a starting point, bet only what you can afford to lose, and enjoy the race.
Bet responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set a deposit limit with your bookmaker and take breaks. Gambling Help Online offers free, confidential support 24/7 on 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling guide.
Sources
Who wrote and checked this page
Alexander Korsager
Alexander Korsager is our editor-in-chief. He has spent more than ten years in online gambling and iGaming, including senior leadership roles. He writes every Melbourne Cup guide on this site from official VRC and Racing Victoria sources.
Dr. Divesh Garg
Dr. Divesh Garg is a game mathematician with a PhD in mathematics and years of research in probability and statistics. He checks the numbers on our odds and betting pages: implied chances, bet costs, exotic combinations and payouts.